Home » Nonfiction » Philip Tetlock » Superforecasting

May 02 , 2010


The Art and Science of Prediction


What if we could improve our ability to predict the future?

Download pdf

Read also

Maisie Mae: 02 Bad Luck Bridesmaid

Maisie Mae and her best friend Bethany-next-door like pink, unicorns and heart-shaped cushions. Maisie Mae's five stinky brothers like worms, football and CHAOS!When Maisie Mae is asked to be a bridesmaid it's a dream come true! Because weddings mean flowers and cake and, most importantly, BEAUTIFUL dresses. But things never run smoothly in…

Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it.

In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project – an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions – has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters.

In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit – whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life.

Show more...

How to download book

Buy this book

You can buy this book now only for $19.69. This is the lowest price for this book.

Buy book

Download book free

If you want to download this book for free, please register, approve your account and get one book for free.


After that you may download book «Superforecasting»:

Download DOCX:


Download XML Book:


Download PDF: